On a lighter note, what are the other ‘”Black Swans’” that can possibly happen over the next few years? Look at the electronic industry. We now know that I.T. companies are already feeling the pinch in the sale of computers as smart phones become more efficient as mobile platforms. The need to be actively engaged in a connected p.c. in the office will become less and less viable.
DVDs and movie piracy would be a thing of the past in the next few years as there are companies who are already streaming music and movies directly to homes either wirelessly or through a fixed line network thereby rendering the purchase of movies to almost like calling for a pizza or a hamburger on line. Watch the jockeying for new IPTV licences.
Next, manufacturing is also going through a catharsis of change. We are looking at 3D modeling that are making parts for motorcars and for small engineering solutions where the 3D modeling on a computer can actually show a part as it is made and all the components that go within it by design. Already these 3D modeling machines and computers are manufacturing models before a full production machine is done. Which means the work of artistic modelers and those who are providing home or models for exhibition could soon find their work being taken over by machines, unless they are also designers.
In the South East Asia property grid, Vietnam is a country with great potential at one point and now looks to change it business model as it finds its products and its people unable to provide the products that the world wants. China as neighbor to Vietnam provides the same products as Vietnam does, cheaper and faster. Vietnam used to have a huge market in US and Europe but the recession in Europe put an end to high values. So Vietnam is looking to find ways in which it can re-engineer its population to be more proactive. It is a microcosm of what is happening with the rest of South East Asia as economies that depended on manpower and low-cost production find themselves caught in a middle income or low income trap. They will find that their people cannot feed themselves with rising inflation thereby setting the tone for other solutions.
Finally, on a happy note, Malaysia is rated by AT Kearney as the 3rd most popular place for business process outsource services but provides a lacuna and a warning that Malaysia’s poor human talent especially the English speaking part, may not survive that status for long.
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